Friday, September 10, 2021

Withdrawing from Afghanistan and Nation Building


Burning Warrior Image (C) DepositPhotos.com Used with Permission


Tom Sheppard
9/10/2021

As we consider the chaotic and blame-riddled scene of our withdrawal from Afghanistan it may be worthwhile to consider why we went there in the fist place, and why we stayed nearly 20 years.

This video from PragerU succinctly describes what happened on September 11, 2001 which began the chain of events that led us into fighting in Afghanistan. If you don't want to watch the video, the short version is that more than 3,000 civilians and some military were attacked and killed on that day by terrorists sponsored by Al Queda.  Military intelligence revealed that the head of Al Queada, and their strongest presence was in Afghanistan.

Through diplomatic and other channels the US Government requested that the government of Afghanistan eject Al Queda from their country.  The Taliban was running Afghanistan at the time and they refused to sanction Al Queda in any way.  As a result, we went to war with Al Queda and their ally, the Taliban.

Over the next several weeks and months the US Military succeeded in effectively destroying nearly all offensive military capabilities of the Taliban and killed many in Al Queda.

US leaders, pondering their next steps, decided that the best way to make sure that Afghanistan would never again become a haven for terrorists was to reshape that country into a democratic republic.  They made this decision based on a view of history that reveals that democratic governments rarely initiate wars on other democratic countries.

With that decision, the mission of the US Military changed from pursuing, killing, or capturing Al Queda members and their allies to building the nation of Afghanistan.

It is worth noting that after World World II the US successfully brought on more than a half century of peace in Europe by rebuilding Germany and brought a significant degree of stability to the Far East by converting Japan from a monarchy into a democratic republic.  Likewise, the nation-building efforts in South Korea have resulted in a powerful ally, an economic miracle in Asia, and a strong democratic tradition there.

Of course, our efforts in Vietnam and later in Afghanistan did not result in the same stellar effects as seen in Germany, Japan, and South Korea.  Why not?

From my analysis of these situations it seems clear that the failures in South Vietnam and Afghanistan both have the same root cause - lack of long-term commitment.

Some will laugh at that and say, "Aren't 20 years enough of a commitment?"  The simple answer to that is "No."

A frank analysis of the successful nation building in Germany, Japan, and South Korea reveals several one telling fact.
  • After more than 50 years we still have a military presence in all three of those countries.
In 2021 the US has about 200,000 military personnel in Europe.  We have 28,000 in Korea.  We have 55,000 in Japan.  

According to The Military Times our peak of engagement in Afghanistan we had about 100,000 troops there.

It is worth noting that we have also engaged in nation building in Iraq.  If you recall, we went in there for very different reasons than we did in Afghanistan.  However, once we took Saddam Hussein out of power we helped secure the peace while Iraqis established a democratic government.  However, when we withdrew our military, they were nearly overrun by ISIS.  The collapse of Iraq was only prevented by a significant re-engagement of our military there.  The Iraqis seem to be continuing on a path to building a stable democracy, but it still seems that if we withdrew, they might collapse, just as happened in Afghanistan.

Conclusions

My experience as a project manager and in process improvement has taught me that if you don't fix the root cause of problems, then you are just treating the symptoms.  I refer to this as putting out fires while not stopping the arsonist.  The initial impetus for our engagement in Afghanistan was to put out a fire.  Our objective was changed to getting rid of the arsonist.  However, in a country where arsonists abound and are often in charge of large groups of people, it will literally take a couple of generations (or more) of work to not only stop the arsonists, but to get rid of the tradition of people following arsonists.

I fully believe that we should have taken the actions we did to put out the fire and make life unbearable for those who attacked us on September 11, 2001, or any who would do so again.  However, if we want to get rid of the arsonists, we need to count the cost in advance and be prepared to invest 50 years or more of our blood and treasure to make that happen.  That is the real cost of nation building.


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Tom Sheppard is a business consultant and coach to small business owners and individuals. He is a recognized author with dozens of titles in business and fiction to his credit. One of his endeavors is to help those who want to see their own book in print. He does this through his trademarked Book Whispering Process (TM).

The author is not an official spokesperson for any organization or person mentioned herein.

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