Tom Sheppard
8/23/2017
Tom Clancy had a vivid imagination. I read and enjoyed his books. He often wove intricate plots which involved governments or quasi-governments engaging in elaborate schemes to hide their hands in world events until they were ready to make their dramatic, public moves.
To be very blunt, recent headlines from the Pacific read like plot points in a Tom Clancy novel.
In the past year, we have had dramatically escalating conflicts with both China and North Korea. At the same time, the US Seventh Fleet, our primary military force in that part of the world has experienced an unprecedented series of four mishaps with our warships in that part of the world.
Most recently, the USS John McCain was hit by an oil tanker bearing a Liberian flag. Before that the USS Fitzgerald collided with a container shipped bearing a Phillipine flag. In May the USS Champlain collided with a South Korean fishing boat. In January, the USS Antietam ran aground, hitting an uncharted sandbar outside of Yokosuka Harbor, Japan.
What all of these accidents have in common is that they all involved guided missile ships of the US Navy. The sort of ships that could effectively do two things, very well:
All of this brings me back to the intricate plots of Tom Clancy. In one of his novels, he imagined someone high-jacking a passenger jet and using it as a weapon, crashing it into the US Capitol Building. Then on 9-11 four passenger jets were high-jacked and used as weapons, crashing them into the World Trade Center towers and the Pentagon. My point here is that whatever an author can imagine in the way of plots and intrigues can also be imagined and implemented by the agents of malice in the world.
To me, when I look at the news coming out of that part of the world, I see signs of a well crafted and cleverly executed plot to dramatically decrease the ability of the US to project power in that part of the world during a very critical time. Don't be surprised if we see significant escalation in the aggressive moves coming out of China, North Korea or both during the next few months.
Given that North Korea is effectively China's guard dog, it is not at all beyond belief that they are encouraging Kim Jong Un to launch his missiles and taunt the US simply to distract attention away from the more strategic moves China is making a little further south.
Add to this a bit of additional history, from just a bit further back. When we lost Vietnam, we lost the military use of the deep water port of Cam Rahn Bay, on the West side of the South China Sea. When the Philippines booted the US out of Subic Bay we lost the military use of a deep water port on the East side of the South China Sea. Deep water ports are not all that common and they are necessary for the large vessels of the US Navy to dock. The loss of these two ports means that big US warships, like air craft carriers, would have to come from the ports of Japan or Australia to enforce international law in the South China Sea. The further we have to stretch to reach the area of contention, the more vulnerable and weaker we are militarily.
If the US is unable to effectively project significant power in the South China Sea, international law won't matter. China will use its own Navy and its string of air strips, with accompanying military planes, to enforce its control of the area. If they can set it up, then the only viable alternatives will be to submit to Chinese extortion or for the US to use gunboat diplomacy to force the opening of the shipping lanes. Getting in a shooting match with China, on their doorstep does not guarantee a positive outcome for the US or the freedom of shipping in international waters.
If an author like Tom Clancy, or me, can imagine it, then the folks in the halls of power have probably already figured out how to make it happen. Think about that, the next time one of our ships in the Seventh Fleet gets clipped. The "accident" probably isn't an accident at all.
Some links to related news stories:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-navy-to-relieve-admiral-of-command-after-collisions-1503448987
http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/01/politics/uss-antietam-damaged-japan/index.html
https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/us-navy-releases-initial-report-on-fitzgerald-collision
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/22/world/asia/us-navy-ship-collision-uss-mccain-search-sailors.html
http://www.newsweek.com/china-south-china-sea-islands-build-military-territory-expand-575161
https://chinapower.csis.org/much-trade-transits-south-china-sea/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cam_Ranh_Bay
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Naval_Base_Subic_Bay
Tom Clancy's Executive Orders
To be very blunt, recent headlines from the Pacific read like plot points in a Tom Clancy novel.
In the past year, we have had dramatically escalating conflicts with both China and North Korea. At the same time, the US Seventh Fleet, our primary military force in that part of the world has experienced an unprecedented series of four mishaps with our warships in that part of the world.
Most recently, the USS John McCain was hit by an oil tanker bearing a Liberian flag. Before that the USS Fitzgerald collided with a container shipped bearing a Phillipine flag. In May the USS Champlain collided with a South Korean fishing boat. In January, the USS Antietam ran aground, hitting an uncharted sandbar outside of Yokosuka Harbor, Japan.
What all of these accidents have in common is that they all involved guided missile ships of the US Navy. The sort of ships that could effectively do two things, very well:
- They could shoot down the missiles coming out of North Korea
- They can project force to deter China's aggressive moves to lay claim to all of the South China Sea.
While the failure on the Antietam is probably nothing more or less than a fluke or a failure of the captain or crew, the other three incidents all leave everyone who is aware of the training and capabilities of these ships wondering how this could happen?
The saber rattling of North Korean President Kim Jong Un has been very much in the national and international headlines because of the dramatic nature of his threats. Test launching missiles capable of reaching the US and working to mount nuclear warheads on them is no idle threat which can be ignored. One of the countermeasures the US has deployed is to visibly sail our guided missile ships off the coast of Korea as a clear threat to shoot down whatever the North Koreans put into the air. And the threat from these ships is no fiction.
With the ability to launch multiple supersonic, guided missiles in seconds, as well as putting nuclear capable cruise missiles into the air, the destructive power of just one of these ships is considerable. North Korea is right to feel intimidated by them.
The actions of the Chinese, because they are less dramatic, have not received nearly as much attention as those of the North Koreans. But the danger they represent is more probable than a nuclear launch from North Korea.
For years now, the Chinese have been laying claim to atolls and sandbars in the far reaches of the South China Sea. They have been building up these tiny islands into places capable of hosting airfields while they have also been mounting shore defenses on them. Along with each claim they stake, they have been claiming that nearly all the waters of the South China Sea are owned by China.
The dashed red line on the map below shows how far China is trying to extend their reach. This is a lot farther than the 12-mile limit recognized in international maritime law. It would effectively make the South China Sea into a Chinese lake. Much as the Roman's referred to the Mediterranean as the Mar Nostrum, "our sea", the Chinese would be able to refer to the South China Sea as their sea.
Countries much closer to these atolls have protested and made counterclaims. But what do the Chinese really have to fear from the Philippines or Vietnam? If either or both of those countries tried to go to war with China over these conflicting claims on the atolls, China would destroy them economically and militarily in a matter of weeks.
Only Japan and US have sufficient presence and power to counter the Chinese ambitions in this area.
So why should we care about what is happening in the South China Sea? Because, experts estimate that about 1/3rd of all global shipping transits the South China Sea. It is among the busiest shipping lanes in the world. If China were to succeed in laying claim to its waters, they could control or prohibit trade through those waters. This would either drive up the costs of everything, by forcing longer routes around those waters, or put a stranglehold on 42% of goods going in and out of Japan.
The chart below shows clearly that it is not just Japan that would feel the impact. Germany, France, the UK, Italy, India, Brazil, Canada and the US would all feel significant impacts if the flow of trade through the South China Sea were restricted or taxed by the Chinese.
All of this brings me back to the intricate plots of Tom Clancy. In one of his novels, he imagined someone high-jacking a passenger jet and using it as a weapon, crashing it into the US Capitol Building. Then on 9-11 four passenger jets were high-jacked and used as weapons, crashing them into the World Trade Center towers and the Pentagon. My point here is that whatever an author can imagine in the way of plots and intrigues can also be imagined and implemented by the agents of malice in the world.
To me, when I look at the news coming out of that part of the world, I see signs of a well crafted and cleverly executed plot to dramatically decrease the ability of the US to project power in that part of the world during a very critical time. Don't be surprised if we see significant escalation in the aggressive moves coming out of China, North Korea or both during the next few months.
Given that North Korea is effectively China's guard dog, it is not at all beyond belief that they are encouraging Kim Jong Un to launch his missiles and taunt the US simply to distract attention away from the more strategic moves China is making a little further south.
Add to this a bit of additional history, from just a bit further back. When we lost Vietnam, we lost the military use of the deep water port of Cam Rahn Bay, on the West side of the South China Sea. When the Philippines booted the US out of Subic Bay we lost the military use of a deep water port on the East side of the South China Sea. Deep water ports are not all that common and they are necessary for the large vessels of the US Navy to dock. The loss of these two ports means that big US warships, like air craft carriers, would have to come from the ports of Japan or Australia to enforce international law in the South China Sea. The further we have to stretch to reach the area of contention, the more vulnerable and weaker we are militarily.
If the US is unable to effectively project significant power in the South China Sea, international law won't matter. China will use its own Navy and its string of air strips, with accompanying military planes, to enforce its control of the area. If they can set it up, then the only viable alternatives will be to submit to Chinese extortion or for the US to use gunboat diplomacy to force the opening of the shipping lanes. Getting in a shooting match with China, on their doorstep does not guarantee a positive outcome for the US or the freedom of shipping in international waters.
If an author like Tom Clancy, or me, can imagine it, then the folks in the halls of power have probably already figured out how to make it happen. Think about that, the next time one of our ships in the Seventh Fleet gets clipped. The "accident" probably isn't an accident at all.
Some links to related news stories:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-navy-to-relieve-admiral-of-command-after-collisions-1503448987
http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/01/politics/uss-antietam-damaged-japan/index.html
https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/us-navy-releases-initial-report-on-fitzgerald-collision
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/22/world/asia/us-navy-ship-collision-uss-mccain-search-sailors.html
http://www.newsweek.com/china-south-china-sea-islands-build-military-territory-expand-575161
https://chinapower.csis.org/much-trade-transits-south-china-sea/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cam_Ranh_Bay
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Naval_Base_Subic_Bay
Tom Clancy's Executive Orders
Tom Sheppard is a business consultant and coach to small business owners and individuals. He is a recognized author with dozens of titles in business and fiction to his credit. One of his endeavors is to help those who want to see their own book in print. He does this through his trademarked Book Whispering Process (TM).
The author is not an official spokesperson for any organization or person mentioned herein.
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